The crypto market sold off broadly on Thursday after Brent crude surged 7.1% to $126.41 a barrel, its highest intraday print in four years, triggering a fresh wave of risk-off pressure that dragged Bitcoin to $75,633 and sent XRP, Ether, and Solana firmly into the red. The catalyst was an Axios report indicating President Donald Trump was set to be briefed on new military options against Iran, including a request by U.S. Central Command to deploy hypersonic missiles to the Middle East, a move that would mark the first combat use of such weapons by American forces.
The news rekindled what traders have been calling the Iran war premium, the portion of an asset’s price driven by conflict risk rather than supply and demand fundamentals.
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut since hostilities began in late February, crude flows of oil, natural gas, and petroleum products have been severely choked, pushing Brent up more than 100% year-to-date and extending its winning streak to nine consecutive sessions, the longest run since May 2022.
Altcoins Bear the Brunt of Escalation Fear
XRP declined 2.1% over the past 24 hours to $1.37 and is down 3.7% on the week, reflecting the broader retreat from risk assets rather than any project-specific development.
Ether suffered a steeper pullback, falling 3.4% to $2,244 and shedding 4.4% over seven days as investor appetite for higher-beta crypto assets evaporated quickly. Solana dropped 2.6% to $82.62, while BNB shed 1.9% to $615.
Bitcoin’s 2.1% slide brought it to $75,633 in Asian trading hours, keeping it within the tight $74,000 to $78,000 range it has maintained throughout April despite oil running from roughly $98 to $126 over the same period. The asset is down 3% on the week.
Analysts note that Bitcoin has shown surprising resilience through the early stages of the conflict now entering its third month, but each new escalation headline tests that composure further.
The lone exception in the top ten by market cap outside stablecoins was Dogecoin, which bucked the trend to trade up 3.8% on the day and 10.1% on the week at $0.10.
The move stood in sharp contrast to the rest of the market and appeared driven by speculative retail activity rather than any macro tailwind, as the broader environment remained firmly hostile to risk-taking.
Macro Pressure Compounds Crypto's Woes
The damage was not confined to digital assets. Nasdaq 100 futures erased an earlier 1.1% rally that had been fueled by strong earnings from Alphabet and Amazon, illustrating how quickly the geopolitical shock overwhelmed what had been a positive earnings backdrop.
MSCI’s Asia Pacific share index fell 1.4%, and European equities were positioned to open roughly 1% lower as the session got underway.
Fixed income markets also came under pressure as the oil surge combined with signals of a hawkish Federal Reserve posture to sap demand for bonds. U.S.
Treasury 10-year yields held near their highest levels since July, and Japan’s 10-year notes climbed to levels last seen in 1997, according to Bloomberg data, underscoring how broadly the macro stress was reverberating across asset classes.
The dollar strengthened against major currencies as investors sought safety, a dynamic that historically creates headwinds for Bitcoin and altcoins by reducing the appeal of non-dollar-denominated risk assets.
The combination of a stronger greenback, elevated yields, and a surging oil price represents a particularly difficult macro backdrop for speculative assets to navigate.
Market analysts have suggested that Bitcoin is unlikely to break convincingly above $80,000 unless Middle East tensions ease materially and Brent crude retreats below $100 a barrel, a threshold that would need to be crossed for a broader recovery in risk appetite to take hold.
That scenario looks distant for now given CENTCOM’s reported request for hypersonic weapons deployment and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil trade in normal conditions.
For altcoins like XRP, Ether, and Solana, the path to recovery depends almost entirely on the same macro resolution.
None of them have the safe-haven narrative that at least partially insulates Bitcoin during periods of geopolitical stress, meaning their drawdowns tend to exceed Bitcoin’s on a percentage basis during risk-off episodes, as Thursday’s moves confirm.
Until oil’s war premium begins to deflate, the broader altcoin market looks likely to remain range-bound or under pressure.
Not Financial Advice: This article is for informational purposes only. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. Always conduct your own research before investing.
