Friday’s April nonfarm payrolls report is shaping up as a pivotal moment for crypto markets, with economists forecasting job growth of just 62,000 compared with March’s 172,000 print, according to Reuters consensus estimates. The supporting evidence appears in Federal court rules against new global tariffs Trump imposed after loss at the Supreme Court.
The unemployment rate is expected to hold near 4.3%, a reading that on its own would typically support risk assets including Bitcoin.
The catch, analysts say, is that headline hiring figures may matter far less than what average hourly earnings show. Wage growth is projected to accelerate to 3.8% year on year from 3.5% previously, a shift that could deepen inflation concerns and force markets to reprice Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Why Wages Are the Swing Factor for Bitcoin
A softer labor market generally reinforces the case for the Fed to hold rates steady, which has historically been constructive for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Markets are currently pricing stable rates through the end of this year, followed by a potential hike in 2026.
That forward pricing leaves little cushion if wage data surprises to the upside.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, outlined the technical picture clearly. “Bitcoin has returned below $80K, extending its retreat from the 200-day moving average after briefly entering overbought territory near the upper boundary of its uptrend channel,” he said.
“The lower boundary of that channel sits near $77.5K, though a broader trend break would likely require a fall below recent lows around $75K.”
That $75,000 zone is now widely regarded as the critical support level analysts are watching. A weaker-than-expected earnings figure could give bulls the catalyst needed to reclaim $80,000, while a hot wage print may accelerate selling pressure toward that threshold.
Hormuz Tensions and the Stagflation Risk Hanging Over Crypto
Beyond payrolls, traders are tracking geopolitical developments in the Strait of Hormuz as a secondary inflation driver.
Singapore-based QCP Capital flagged the tension in a recent market note, pointing out that prediction markets currently assign a 97% probability to no normalization of Hormuz shipping conditions by May 15.
“The gap between that pricing and the equity market’s willingness to fade every escalation is the week’s defining contradiction,” QCP Capital wrote.
The firm added that if crude oil fails to de-escalate before the May 20 Federal Open Market Committee minutes are released, “the stagflation narrative will become much harder to dismiss.”
Elevated oil prices layered on top of sticky wage growth would create a dual inflation signal that complicates any dovish Fed pivot. Risk assets including Bitcoin tend to struggle most in environments where growth slows but prices remain elevated, precisely the stagflation scenario QCP Capital is warning about.
Separately, a federal court ruled against the Trump administration’s broad global tariff framework, adding another layer of macro uncertainty that traders are folding into their risk models ahead of the payrolls release.
For Bitcoin bulls, the ideal outcome on Friday is a payrolls miss accompanied by cooling wages. Either data point alone may not be enough to drive a sustained move higher, but a combination of both would remove two of the biggest near-term obstacles standing between Bitcoin and a recovery above $80,000.
Not Financial Advice: This article is for informational purposes only. Crypto investments are highly volatile. Always do your own research.
